Real Estate Market Shift Spells “Opportunity” for Some, “Reality” For Others

Opportunity or Reality

The real estate market in Northern Virginia is continuing to experience a subtle shift. While we’re still seeing competitive situations and multiple offers on some homes in some areas, other areas are seeing average time on market as high as 6 months and housing inventory of more than a year. If you’re thinking of buying or selling your home, you will definitely want to take a look at these numbers – because numbers tell a story!

City # Homes On Market Avg Days on Market # Under Contract Past 30 days #Months Housing Supply
Vienna 242 102 73 3.3
Sterling 281 50 109 2.6
Springfield 257 52 113 2.3
Reston 283 54 97 2.9
Oakton 104 112 28 3.8
McLean 321 108 66 4.9
Herndon 237 65 77 3.1
Great Falls 224 179 15 14.9
Falls Church 296 58 117 2.5
Fairfax 445 55 182 2.5
Dunn Loring 7 49 1 7.0
Chantilly 53 51 14 3.8
Centreville 243 61 80 3.0
Burke 105 48 53 2.0
Ashburn 558 93 143 3.9
Arlington 610 75 246 2.5
Alexandria 1181 79 440 2.7

The area and price range you’re looking in will vastly affect what strategy you employ.

If you’re looking to buy in Great Falls for example, then you have a HUGE amount of leverage when making an offer. Currently, there are 224 homes for sale and the average time those homes have been on the market is SIX MONTHS. There is also a FIFTEEN MONTH supply of housing right now. That means if homes sell at the rate they have over the past 30 days, then it would take 15 months to sell all of the homes currently on the market. That spells OPPORTUNITY for buyers. And it spells REALITY for Sellers. It’s no longer the time to price aggressively to “see what the market will bear.”

(Search Homes For Sale in Great Falls)

On the other hand, if you’re looking in Burke, you’ll find the complete opposite. Average days on market for active listings is less than two months. And there is only a 2 month supply of housing. Less than 3 months housing supply means that Burke is still experiencing a Seller’s Market. What does this mean? Sellers may still be able to push the envelope; and Buyers will likely find themselves competing for homes. This means Buyers need to adjust their contract strategy accordingly – being prepared to offer more, use an escalation clause, drop contingencies, offer a free rentback or a number of other strategies.

(Search Homes For Sale in Burke)

When you look at the chart above – what you’ll see is that in general, the higher price areas (like Great Falls & McLean) are starting to see longer marketing times and a much larger housing supply. While the more affordable areas (like Burke & Springfield) are still firecely competitive.

(Search Homes For Sale in Great Falls) (Search Homes For Sale in McLean)

(Search Homes For Sale in Burke) (Search Homes For Sale in Springfield)

Areas like Vienna, Oakton & Ashburn are experiencing what we call a “W” Market. Buyers in these markets are extremely price sensitive and there are pockets of Buyer & Seller submarkets embedded within each – some Seller’s, some Buyer’s, some Balanced Markets.. As an example, we recently put 3 listings on the market in Vienna between $800,000 and $900,000. One had multiple offers and sold in 3 days over list price. The others are still on the market. We are seeing Buyers step back and make much more considered decisions – sometimes not even looking at homes they feel are overpriced, and/or not being able to look past issues like dated kitchens. This means Sellers must be much more on target when setting that initial price in order to end up at the top of the W, and not at the bottom.

(Search Homes For Sale in Vienna) (Search Homes For Sale in Oakton) (Search Homes For Sale in Ashburn)

For more info about YOUR neighborhood or the neighborhood you WANT to live in, contact The Belt Team at (703) 242-3975. We’ll help create a personal strategy for YOUR market. regardless of whether you’re buying or selling, you deserve the BEST Real Estate Team in Northern VA!

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We just listed a fabulous, move-in ready townhome in popular Ashburn Village! Here’s a sneak peek!

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Price, more info & lots of photos of Silkworth Terrace in Ashburn

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Home Sales Down, Real Estate Prices Up in Most of Northern VA

Northern VA Real Estate

A year-over-year comparison for home prices in Northern Virginia (for homes that sold Jan 1 thru June 16) shows several trends for most of Northern Virginia:

Number of Home Sales:

The number of home sales is down in almost every area of Northern VA. Burke & Dunn Loring home sales remained stable. In Springfield, home sales increased 4% this year – from 522 sales to 543 sales. However, in every other city, home sales fell. The most extreme drop in sales occurred in Great Falls, where home sales dropped 43% (from 122 sales to 70 sales).

Average Sales Price:

With three exceptions, home sale prices increased in every city in Northern Virginia. One area (Burke) remained almost stable. And two areas (Mclean and Great Falls) saw prices fall. Note that McLean and Great Falls are also the only two Northern Virginia areas where the average home price exceeded $1 million. The areas seeing the highest rise in values year over year were Herndon (6.9%), Vienna (8.4%), Chantilly (9.2%) and Dunn Loring (10.4%).

If you’re buying or selling a home, it’s imperative you know the market trends not just in YOUR city – but also your school district and neighborhood.

This will help guide your pricing strategy. Statistics are not the ONLY guide to pricing, but are an important piece of the puzzle – whether you’re a Seller deciding on where to price your home for market – or a Buyer deciding whether to offer above or below list price.

Here are specific stats for each area of Northern Virginia.

Northern VA 2013 Sales 2014 Sales Yr Over Yr Avg SP 2013 Avg SP 2014 Yr Over Yr
Alexandria 2244 2005 -11% $479,250 $498,618 4%
Arlington 1309 1174 -10% $598,657 $609,025 1.7%
Ashburn 734 593 -19% $476,335 $478,629 0.5%
Burke 255 255 0% $440,717 $439,585 -0.3%
Centreville 436 387 -11% $377,711 $379,598 0.5%
Chantilly 335 309 -8% $439,383 $479,623 9.2%
Dunn Loring 8 8 0% $761,688 $840,563 10.4%
Fairfax 962 810 -16% $484,174 $495,857 2.4%
Falls Church 646 556 -14% $486,779 $507,063 4.2%
Great Falls 122 70 -43% $1,228,030 $1,160,466 -5.5%
Herndon 366 310 -15% $452,807 $483,955 6.9%
McLean 338 281 -17% $1,067,027 $1,002,964 -6.0%
Oakton 163 105 -36% $624,298 $633,566 1.5%
Reston 509 444 -13% $447,494 $458,481 2.5%
Springfield 522 543 4% $426,240 $444,782 4.4%
Sterling 498 484 -3% $377,291 $388,738 3.0%
Vienna 373 325 -13% $734,102 $796,107 8.4%

Call (703) 242-3975 if you would like a zip code, school district or neighborhood analysis.

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Real Estate Prices Continue To Rise in MOST of Northern VA

Northern VA Real Estate

A year-over-year comparison for home prices in Northern Virginia (for homes that sold Jan 1 thru April 30th) shows there are only a few areas left where home prices did not rise over last year.

McLean

Although sales were down 10% in 2014 vs 2013, the average home price of homes sold also fell 13%. This means Buyers in certain price points MAY be able to get a deal! The caveat to this is that home sales varied from as low as $215,000 to as high as $3,400,000 so far this year. The lower the price point, the less likely you are to get a deal and you probably will still be competing.

Dunn Loring

Sales were up 33%. But the average price of a home sold fell 7%. However, Dunn Loring is a statistical anomaly. With only 3-4 sales during the Jan-April timeframe each year, you cannot truly chart this as a falling market.

Burke

Burke “technically” makes it onto the list of areas where home prices did not rise year-over-year. Prices went down .1%. (That’s “point one percent – NOT one percent). Sales actually rose in Burke this year. We’ll be keeping our eye on this area to see what transpires over the rest of the Spring.

Other than McLean, Dunn Loring & Burke – every other area’s prices rose from last year!

Most areas rose somewhere less than 5%, while two areas showed price increases of more than 7%. Arlington, Ashburn, Centreville, Fairfax, Falls Church, Herndon, Sterling & Vienna – all fall into the first category. While Oakton & Springfield fall into the latter.

If you’re buying or selling a home, it’s imperative you know the market trends not just in YOUR city – but also your school district and neighborhood. This will help guide your pricing strategy. Statistics are not the ONLY guide to pricing, but are an important piece of the puzzle – whether you’re a Seller deciding on where to price your home for market – or a Buyer deciding whether to offer above or below list price.

Here are general stats for Northern Virginia.

Call (703) 242-3975 if you would like a zip code, school district or neighborhood analysis.

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Northern VA 2013 Sales 2014 Sales Yr Over Yr Avg SP 2013 Avg SP 2014 Yr Over Yr
Alexandria 1420 1306 -8% $467,712 $496,433 6%
Arlington 839 751 -10% $582,945 $586,994 0.7%
Ashburn 477 396 -17% $468,098 $472,508 0.9%
Burke 153 167 9% $427,016 $426,518 -0.1%
Centreville 266 271 2% $362,482 $376,142 3.8%
Chantilly 229 218 -5% $429,903 $465,667 8.3%
Dunn Loring 3 4 33% $897,333 $834,000 -7.1%
Fairfax 620 534 -14% $474,712 $487,474 2.7%
Falls Church 407 369 -9% $465,892 $486,850 4.5%
Great Falls 78 44 -44% $1,213,930 $1,203,783 -0.8%
Herndon 214 197 -8% $437,149 $458,407 4.9%
McLean 217 195 -10% $1,071,602 $933,403 -12.9%
Oakton 93 69 -26% $571,826 $612,194 7.1%
Reston 301 298 -1% $432,459 $455,443 5.3%
Springfield 318 344 8% $404,473 $436,536 7.9%
Sterling 302 310 3% $362,709 $380,380 4.9%
Vienna 236 210 -11% $731,906 $746,379 2.0%

The Belt Team’s Mission Statement is “Changing Lives For The Better” – if it’s time to change YOURS, call (703) 242-3975 or email The Belt Team and let us know how we can help!

Northern VA Home Sales Down, Prices Up in First Quarter of 2014

First quarter statistics have been released. In most areas the number of homes sold in the first quarter of 2014 was down compared to first quarter 2013. However, in most areas, prices rose. Only 3 areas saw an increase in home sales: Dunn Loring, Centreville & Springfield. In every other Northern Virginia city, home sales declined year over year. On the other hand, prices were up in all cities except three: Ashburn, Great Falls & McLean. The other areas saw average prices rise from 2.1% to 10.2%. (See chart below for sales & prices in each city.)

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Northern VA Home Sales

Northern VA 2013 Sales 2014 Sales Yr Over Yr Avg SP 2013 Avg SP 2014 Yr Over Yr
Alexandria 951 867 -9% $451,880 $488,773 8%
Arlington 536 486 -9% $570,179 $585,200 2.6%
Ashburn 331 253 -24% $466,963 $462,281 -1.0%
Burke 96 114 19% $415,793 $426,403 2.6%
Centreville 173 182 5% $354,407 $372,015 5.0%
Chantilly 166 144 -13% $429,711 $463,140 7.8%
Dunn Loring 2 4 100% $882,500 $834,000 -5.5%
Fairfax 414 344 -17% $463,841 $488,611 5.3%
Falls Church 282 251 -11% $466,898 $476,777 2.1%
Great Falls 55 25 -55% $1,248,293 $1,108,758 -11.2%
Herndon 138 124 -10% $419,152 $447,186 6.7%
McLean 143 128 -10% $1,135,881 $931,091 -18.0%
Oakton 54 48 -11% $509,763 $562,012 10.2%
Reston 194 190 -2% $427,210 $441,990 3.5%
Springfield 208 232 12% $395,386 $428,874 8.5%
Sterling 211 194 -8% $349,394 $379,676 8.7%
Vienna 140 129 -8% $718,021 $733,301 2.1%

First Quarter Housing Update – Northern Virginia – Plus 5 Home Buyer Tips

How is the housing market doing around Northern Virginia? Wondering where prices are? How many homes are selling? Whether it’s a Buyer’s Market, Seller’s Market or Balanced Market? Let’s take a look at the stats:

City # Sales Avg Price Avg DOM Housing Supply Buyer or Seller Market
Alexandria 867 $489,013 58 days 1.7 months Seller
Annandale 103 $440,984 54 days 1 month Seller
Arlington 486 $585,193 44 days 1.5 months Seller
Ashburn 244 $461,566 53 days 2.3 months Seller
Burke 114 $426,403 37 days Less than 1 month Seller
Centreville 182 $372,015 50 days 1.1 month Seller
Chantilly 40 $450,406 30 days Less than 1 month Seller
Dunn Loring 4 $834,000 48 days 6 months Balanced
Fairfax 343 $488,140 45 days 1.1 month Seller
Falls Church 251 $476,777 46 days 1.2 months Seller
Great Falls 23 $1,160,393 135 days 8 months Buyer
Herndon 124 $447,186 43 days 1.4 months Seller
McLean 128 $931,091 88 days 3.8 months Balanced
Oakton 48 $562,012 80 days 2.8 months Balanced
Reston 190 $441,990 45 days 1.5 months Seller
Springfield 234 $424,165 48 days Less than 1 month Seller
Sterling 193 $380,053 46 days Less than 1 month Seller
Vienna 127 $729,021 53 days 2 months Seller

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This week and next week are “Spring Break” for Northern Virginia schools. We typically see an upswing in inventory just following this period. So stay tuned.

If you’ve been waiting to find that dream home, this just may be the time – but you’ll likely have to move FAST to beat others to the punch. Best way to do that?

1. Sign a Buyer Broker Agreement so you have a Buyer Agent working on your behalf. If you call a Listing Agent, they only have one person’s interests at heart: The Seller’s.

2. Know what you’re looking for. Know the reality of what your money buys. If you’ve been looking for a while and haven’t yet bought, then you know prices are rising and interest rates are rising. Now’s the time to get real if you want to get into a new home.

3. Have your loan approved before you look for homes. Your approval letter MUST accompany your contract offer. Sellers won’t even look at a contract without it.

4. Remove as many contingencies as are prudent. If you’re not sure which ones you are comfortable with removing or which ones you are able to remove – discuss this NOW with your agent – before you’re in a competition.

5.Use a state-of-the-art home search site (like BeltTeamRealEstate.com). What’s the biggest complaint we hear from people who use Zillow, Trulia & Realtor.com? That the data is outdated. They call about listings that are long under contract. Our site is updated constantly and our buyers often tell us it’s the best site they used. Don’t miss out!

The Belt Team’s Mission Statement is “Changing Lives For The Better”. If now is the time to change yours, give us a call at (703) 242-3975. We’ll help you make the RIGHT move!

Dynamic Duo Strikes Again

Last year, our team implemented a new model. We call it our “Secret Weapon”. Our Lead Buyer Agent Tom Reilly, works in tandem with our Showing Partner Beth Dadisman. We have always worked as specialists on our team, but we took it to the next level in an effort serve our clients even better. Tom does the initial Buyer Consultation & Needs Analysis, Tom & Beth both search out the best properties, Beth previews & shows homes, and Tom negotiates the contract. Our clients Ben & Carissa Decker just posted a review on independent site Zillow.com and it’s a great testimony to how well our system worked for them.

Tom Reilly and Beth Dadisman

Carissa flew in from out of town to look at homes and she only had a very short amount of time. In preparation, Showing Specialist Beth Dadisman previewed more than 30 homes in a variety of cities – Ashburn, Herndon, Sterling, Centreville, Chantilly & more. The goal was to make the most of Carissa’s time here and not waste time looking at homes that wouldn’t meet her criteria. You see, you can’t tell everything from the pictures on the internet or the MLS. They don’t always show how busy the street is, the power lines in the backyard, or even how poor the condition is. Carissa knew what she was looking for. And so did we. The days spent ahead of time on previewing meant that Carissa & ben were able to accomplish their goal and do so in their desired timeframe.

Congrats Carissa & Ben. And welcome home!

Read more about how our showing partner strategy helps you compete in today’s market.

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Are We In A Buyer’s Market or A Seller’s Market In Northern VA?

Northern VA Real Estate Market Fluctuation

When we meet with our Buyers & Sellers for their initial consultation, one of the things we talk about is what’s happening nationally, regionally and locally in the real estate market – how much homes are selling for, what’s on the market, and how fast homes are selling. The question that comes up most often is “Are we in a Buyer’s Market or a Seller’s Market?”

First, let’s define the terms:

“Balanced Market”: is a real estate market where there is about 6 months of housing inventory. There is no real advantage to one side or the other.

“Buyer’s Market”: is a real estate market where there are more homes on the market than there are Buyers, so much so that Buyers have the upper hand in negotiating and can often get a deal. Typically, a “Buyer’s Market” is defined as more than 6 months of housing inventory.

“Seller’s Market”: is a real estate market where there are a plethora of Buyers and not many homes on the market. This means Sellers have the advantage and this is a market where we see competing offers on many homes. Typically, a “Seller’s Market” is defined as less than 3 months of housing inventory.

So where are we today in Northern VA?

(Search Homes For Sale in Northern VA On Our State-of-the-Art Search Site)

In most areas in Northern VA (Alexandria, Arlington, Ashburn, Burke, Centreville, Chantilly, Dunn Loring, Fairfax, Falls Church, Herndon, Reston, Springfield, Sterling & Vienna) – housing inventory is less than 2 months and we are in a Seller’s Market.

In Oakton, housing inventory is just under 3 months, which is technically also a Seller’s Market – but there are pockets – with some neighborhoods &  price ranges that are seeing a Balanced Market and others seeing a Seller’s Market.

In Great Falls & McLean, housing inventory is 6 months & 3 months respectively – so technically a Balanced Market. However, note that as you go up in price range, there are HUGE variances and some areas are actually still seeing a Buyer’s Market.

Here are the stats for each city in Northern VA:

CITY # Months Inventory Market
Alexandria 1.6 Seller’s
Arlington 1.8 Seller’s
Ashburn 2.8 Balanced
Burke 1.3 Seller’s
Centreville 1.1 Seller’s
Chantilly 1.3 Seller’s
Dunn Loring 2 Seller’s
Fairfax 1.1 Seller’s
Falls Church 1.5 Seller’s
Great Falls 6 Balanced
Herndon 1.8 Seller’s
McLean 3 Balanced
Oakton 2.5 Seller’s
Reston 1.3 Seller’s
Springfield 0.8 Seller’s
Sterling 1.2 Seller’s
Vienna 1.5 Seller’s

Call The Belt Team at (703) 242-3975 for a detailed analysis on YOUR neighborhood. After all, it’s only the area you live in or WANT to live in that matters!

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Snow Does Not Stall Spring Market In Northern Virginia

Oakton Real EstateThe first day of Spring is still a few weeks away, and we have a ton of snow on the ground; but if you take a look at home sales in Northern Virginia, you’ll see that the Spring market is already in full swing. (We know this anecdotally from our own listings & sales, but let’s take a look at the statistics.)

What SOLD In January & February?

The “Sold Price” of a home is not usually released until the home goes to settlement & the sale is recorded at the courthouse, So when you see articles about home “sales”, the data lags a bit. Homes that sold in January & February probably went under contract somewhere between November & January. How many homes settled and what was the average sales price? Check the list below for your area:

CITY # of Home Sales Avg Sold Price
Alexandria 472 $463,813
Arlington 286 $559,848
Ashburn 131 $482,696
Burke 63 $449,776
Centreville 98 $385,240
Chantilly 88 $450,969
Dunn Loring 2 $840,000
Fairfax 206 $480,367
Falls Church 161 $481,629
Great Falls 14 $1,120,100
Herndon 74 $453,627
McLean 76 $926,662
Oakton 31 $597,409
Reston 105 $408,003
Springfield 134 $416,077
Sterling 111 $384,360
Vienna 79 $719,238

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What Went UNDER CONTRACT in January & February?

In every jurisdiction, a LOT more homes went under contract in January & February than sold during the previous few months. Buyers are NOT waiting until “true Spring” to buy homes.

CITY # of Homes Sold # of Homes Under Contract
Alexandria 472 714
Arlington 286 373
Ashburn 131 208
Burke 63 91
Centreville 98 142
Chantilly 88 114
Dunn Loring 2 3
Fairfax 206 284
Falls Church 161 173
Great Falls 14 24
Herndon 74 99
McLean 76 98
Oakton 31 38
Reston 105 149
Springfield 134 191
Sterling 111 147
Vienna 79 114

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How Fast Are Homes Selling?

Not only are more homes selling, but with the exception of Great Falls & McLean, they are selling faster now than they were over the past few months. (Dunn Loring is also an exception, but the statistical pool is too small to call it a trend.) Keep in mind, these are averages. Many homes are selling the same weekend they go on the market. We listed one Thursday, a contract came in over the weekend and was ratified today. (Note that there are a variety of conditions in the marketplace – with some homes languishing and some getting multiple contracts. We had one listing in our office last month that received 17 contracts!) (Note: DOM = “days on market”)

CITY DOM Solds DOM Under Contracts
Alexandria 61 59
Arlington 48 40
Ashburn 56 39
Burke 43 36
Centreville 55 50
Chantilly 45 41
Dunn Loring 18 54
Fairfax 52 42
Falls Church 51 46
Great Falls 133 133
Herndon 48 40
McLean 86 96
Oakton 87 75
Reston 52 41
Springfield 54 47
Sterling 54 44
Vienna 53 50

Moral of the Story?

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Sellers: If you have been waiting for the market to improve so you can sell, NOW is the time. Call Terry Belt or Kevin Kleifges at (703) 242-3975 to schedule a Seller Consultation. Not only will we discuss the market conditions of YOUR neighborhood, we will consult with you on staging, preparation, marketing, pricing strategies & more. (If you call this month, we will also pay for a consultation with our Professional Stager – a $195 value). You can also set up a FREE daily update (or weekly or monthly) so you find out what homes are selling for in your neighborhood.

Buyers: The market is tight. Be prepared to move quickly. You may need to compete. And in order to do so, you may need to lower the price range you are looking in. (If you can only afford to go to $700,000 for example, you may want to only look at homes up to $650,000.) You also need to make sure you work with Realtors who are proactive, seek properties on your behalf that are NOT yet on the market and utilize the most state-of-the-art home search web site (not sites like Zillow or Trulia that are NOT updated as frequently.) Contact us at (703) 242-3975 to schedule a FREE Buyer Consultation. No obligation. We will discuss market conditions, strategies for competing, the entire homebuying process including how much cash you will need, financing options and more. Interest rates are low, so you might be surprised at what you can afford. And since prices are rising, you don’t want to wait!

The Belt Team’s mission is “Changing Lives For The Better“. If it’s time to change YOURS, call us TODAY at (703) 242-3975. It would be a pleasure for OUR family to help YOUR family make the RIGHT move!

Latest Belt Team Video Released: “Lickety Split”!

The Belt Team is well known for their creative marketing & outside-the-box strategies and our latest video is a perfect example. It’s why our Northern Virginia homes sell FASTER & for MORE MONEY than average.

Take a peek:

If you’d like to schedule an appointment for a FREE Seller Consultation, call Terry Belt or Kevin Kleifges at (703) 242-3975 or contact The Belt Team. Our mission is “Changing Lives For The Better“. Is it time to change YOURS?

(Reviews about The Belt Team.)

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Call The Belt Team at (703) 242-3975. We’re happy to help you create a plan to buy or sell that’s the RIGHT plan for YOU!

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