3 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Crash

3 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Crash | MyKCM

With home prices softening, some are concerned that we may be headed toward the next housing crash. However, it is important to remember that today’s market is quite different than the bubble market of twelve years ago.

The Belt Team, CEO, Terry Belt says, A difference now compared to the last cycle is that the economy is bustling at levels not seen since the mid/late 1980s and jobs are being created and consumer confidence and real wages are increasing.  The last cycle all of these factors were all trending negative and also amidst a higher mortgage/interest rate environment.

Here are three key metrics that will explain why:

  1. Home Prices
  2. Mortgage Standards
  3. Foreclosure Rates

HOME PRICES

A decade ago, home prices depreciated dramatically, losing about 29% of their value over a four-year period (2008-2011). Today, prices are not depreciating. The level of appreciation is just decelerating.

Home values are no longer appreciating annually at a rate of 6-7%. However, they have still increased by more than 4% over the last year. Of the 100 experts reached for the latest Home Price Expectation Survey94 said home values would continue to appreciate through 2019. It will just occur at a lower rate.

MORTGAGE STANDARDS

Many are concerned that lending institutions are again easing standards to a level that helped create the last housing bubble. However, there is proof that today’s standards are nowhere near as lenient as they were leading up to the crash.

The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a quarterly index which,

“…measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”

Last month, their January Housing Credit Availability Index revealed:

“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”

FORECLOSURE INVENTORY

Within the last decade, distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) made up 35% of all home sales. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association revealed just last week that:

“The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 0.95 percent…This was the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the first quarter of 1996.”

Bottom Line

After using these three key housing metrics to compare today’s market to that of the last decade, we can see that the two markets are nothing alike.

It is always a good time to buy or sell, and we are here to help! Let’s chat. Give us a call at 703-242-3975 or send us an email at info@thebeltteam.com .

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Mortgage Minute: New Expanded FHA & VA Guidelines From NPF Benefit Home Buyers

Today’s “Mortgage Minute” is just in from our trusted lending partner, Senior Loan Officer Paul Diaz with New Penn Financial! If you’re thinking of buying a home in Northern Virginia this year – this may interest you!

Northern VA Mortgage Financing          Home Mortgages in Northern Virginia

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“Please let your homebuyers know that qualifying for an FHA and VA loan with
New Penn Financial has never been easier! With New Penn’s unparalleled customer service and far-reaching guidelines, more borrowers gain access to a mortgage to purchase their new home. Here are some of the things we may be able to do:

  • FICOs (credit scores) starting at 580 (FHA) and 560 (VA)
  • Increased DTI (debt-to-income ratio) limits up to 60%
  • Revised tradeline requirements
  • Government down payment assistance permitted

Note that these are not set-in-stone guidelines, but we may have flexibility in these areas when compensating factors are involved. Examples of compensating factors would be high income, large assets or long time on the job.

When the market is contracting as a whole, New Penn Financial, LLC is expanding what we offer! Don’t hesitate to contact us. You may be pleasantly surprised that you can buy a home sooner than you think!

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Contact Paul Diaz at New Penn Financial for full details of program guidelines.

What Does A Shift In The Market Mean For Home Buyers?

In Northern VA, the housing market has shifted into a strong Seller’s market; so what does this mean for Buyers? Watch this 2 minute video to find out:

 

The one thing we would point out that is slightly different than what you saw in the video, is that The Belt Team recommends that buyers get pre-APRROVED, not just pre-qualified. In order to compete in today’s market, Buyers need to be fully approved for their mortgage and have a full approval letter from their lender BEFORE they write a contract.

Tom Reilly Buyer Specialist Northern VA Real EstateHappy Belt Team Buyer

For more tips on what Buyers can do to succeed in today’s market, contact Belt Team Lead Buyer Specialist Tom Reilly at (703) 629-1263 (or email Tom). His legal and technology background have provided him with some superb strategies that he implements on behalf of his buyers!