New Study Reveals One Surprising Reason for the Inventory Shortage

New Study Reveals One Surprising Reason for the Inventory Shortage | MyKCM

There has been a great amount written on millennials and their impact on the housing market. However, the headlines often contradict each other. Some claim this generation is becoming the largest share of first-time home buyers, while others claim millennials don’t want to own a home, blaming them for the dip in homeownership rate.

While it is true that millennials have achieved milestones like getting married, having kids, and buying homes later in life than their parents and grandparents did, they are not solely to blame for today’s housing market trends.

Freddie Mac’s Insight Report explored the impact of the Silent and Baby Boomer Generations on the housing market.

If millennials are unable to find a home to buy at a young age like their predecessors, then who is living in those homes?

The answer: Seniors born after 1931 are staying in their homes longer than previous generations, instead choosing to “age in place.”

Freddie Mac found that,

“this trend accounts for about 1.6 million houses held back from the market through 2018, representing about one year’s typical supply of new construction, or more than half of the current shortfall of 2.5 million housing units estimated in December’s Insight.

Older Americans prefer to age in place because they are satisfied with their communities, their homes, and their quality of life.”

According to the National Association of Realtors, inventory of homes for sale is currently at a 3.5-month supply, which means that nationally we are in a seller’s market. A ‘normal’ housing market requires 6-7 months inventory, a level we have not achieved since August 2012.

“The most important fundamental in today’s housing market is the lack of houses for sale. This shortage has been identified as an important barrier to young adults buying their first homes.”

Bottom Line

If you are one of the many seniors who desires to retire in the same area you’ve always lived, you’re not alone. Will your current house fit your needs throughout retirement? If you have any questions about demand for your house, let’s get together to discuss the opportunities available today!

Need help navigating the market? Call/text us at 703-242-3975!

U.S. Housing Inventory Hits a New Low – That’s GREAT! (If You’re Selling!)

Here’s the latest from our colleagues at Keeping Current Matters.
For info about YOUR neighborhood (or the neighborhood you want to live in), give The Belt Team a call at (703) 242-3975. We can provide you with detailed facts PLUS the “boots on the ground” data that will help you make the RIGHT move! Because what’s happening in Vienna may be different than in Arlington. Even more important is price range – because we are seeing a slowing in the upper ranges, while other price ranges remain HOT!
U.S. Housing Inventory Hits a New Low… List Your House TODAY! | MyKCM

Every summer, families across the country decide if this will be the year they sell their current house and move into their dream home.

Mortgage rates have hovered around 4% for all of 2017, forcing buyers off the fence and into the market, resulting in incredibly strong demand RIGHT NOW!! At the same time, inventory levels of homes for sale have dropped dramatically as compared to this time last year.

Trulia reported that “U.S. home inventory has tumbled 8.9% over the past year and has now fallen for nine consecutive quarters.” There is now 20% less inventory than there was five years ago.

Here is a chart showing the decrease in inventory levels by category:

U.S. Housing Inventory Hits a New Low… List Your House TODAY! | MyKCM

Bottom Line

Demand for your home is very strong right now while your competition (other homes for sale) is at a historically low level. If you are thinking of selling in 2017, now may be the perfect time.

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Top Realtor Vienna VA

Real Estate Market Shift Spells “Opportunity” for Some, “Reality” For Others

Opportunity or Reality

The real estate market in Northern Virginia is continuing to experience a subtle shift. While we’re still seeing competitive situations and multiple offers on some homes in some areas, other areas are seeing average time on market as high as 6 months and housing inventory of more than a year. If you’re thinking of buying or selling your home, you will definitely want to take a look at these numbers – because numbers tell a story!

City # Homes On Market Avg Days on Market # Under Contract Past 30 days #Months Housing Supply
Vienna 242 102 73 3.3
Sterling 281 50 109 2.6
Springfield 257 52 113 2.3
Reston 283 54 97 2.9
Oakton 104 112 28 3.8
McLean 321 108 66 4.9
Herndon 237 65 77 3.1
Great Falls 224 179 15 14.9
Falls Church 296 58 117 2.5
Fairfax 445 55 182 2.5
Dunn Loring 7 49 1 7.0
Chantilly 53 51 14 3.8
Centreville 243 61 80 3.0
Burke 105 48 53 2.0
Ashburn 558 93 143 3.9
Arlington 610 75 246 2.5
Alexandria 1181 79 440 2.7

The area and price range you’re looking in will vastly affect what strategy you employ.

If you’re looking to buy in Great Falls for example, then you have a HUGE amount of leverage when making an offer. Currently, there are 224 homes for sale and the average time those homes have been on the market is SIX MONTHS. There is also a FIFTEEN MONTH supply of housing right now. That means if homes sell at the rate they have over the past 30 days, then it would take 15 months to sell all of the homes currently on the market. That spells OPPORTUNITY for buyers. And it spells REALITY for Sellers. It’s no longer the time to price aggressively to “see what the market will bear.”

(Search Homes For Sale in Great Falls)

On the other hand, if you’re looking in Burke, you’ll find the complete opposite. Average days on market for active listings is less than two months. And there is only a 2 month supply of housing. Less than 3 months housing supply means that Burke is still experiencing a Seller’s Market. What does this mean? Sellers may still be able to push the envelope; and Buyers will likely find themselves competing for homes. This means Buyers need to adjust their contract strategy accordingly – being prepared to offer more, use an escalation clause, drop contingencies, offer a free rentback or a number of other strategies.

(Search Homes For Sale in Burke)

When you look at the chart above – what you’ll see is that in general, the higher price areas (like Great Falls & McLean) are starting to see longer marketing times and a much larger housing supply. While the more affordable areas (like Burke & Springfield) are still firecely competitive.

(Search Homes For Sale in Great Falls) (Search Homes For Sale in McLean)

(Search Homes For Sale in Burke) (Search Homes For Sale in Springfield)

Areas like Vienna, Oakton & Ashburn are experiencing what we call a “W” Market. Buyers in these markets are extremely price sensitive and there are pockets of Buyer & Seller submarkets embedded within each – some Seller’s, some Buyer’s, some Balanced Markets.. As an example, we recently put 3 listings on the market in Vienna between $800,000 and $900,000. One had multiple offers and sold in 3 days over list price. The others are still on the market. We are seeing Buyers step back and make much more considered decisions – sometimes not even looking at homes they feel are overpriced, and/or not being able to look past issues like dated kitchens. This means Sellers must be much more on target when setting that initial price in order to end up at the top of the W, and not at the bottom.

(Search Homes For Sale in Vienna) (Search Homes For Sale in Oakton) (Search Homes For Sale in Ashburn)

For more info about YOUR neighborhood or the neighborhood you WANT to live in, contact The Belt Team at (703) 242-3975. We’ll help create a personal strategy for YOUR market. regardless of whether you’re buying or selling, you deserve the BEST Real Estate Team in Northern VA!

Top Northern VA Real Estate Agents

Are We In A Buyer’s Market or A Seller’s Market In Northern VA?

Northern VA Real Estate Market Fluctuation

When we meet with our Buyers & Sellers for their initial consultation, one of the things we talk about is what’s happening nationally, regionally and locally in the real estate market – how much homes are selling for, what’s on the market, and how fast homes are selling. The question that comes up most often is “Are we in a Buyer’s Market or a Seller’s Market?”

First, let’s define the terms:

“Balanced Market”: is a real estate market where there is about 6 months of housing inventory. There is no real advantage to one side or the other.

“Buyer’s Market”: is a real estate market where there are more homes on the market than there are Buyers, so much so that Buyers have the upper hand in negotiating and can often get a deal. Typically, a “Buyer’s Market” is defined as more than 6 months of housing inventory.

“Seller’s Market”: is a real estate market where there are a plethora of Buyers and not many homes on the market. This means Sellers have the advantage and this is a market where we see competing offers on many homes. Typically, a “Seller’s Market” is defined as less than 3 months of housing inventory.

So where are we today in Northern VA?

(Search Homes For Sale in Northern VA On Our State-of-the-Art Search Site)

In most areas in Northern VA (Alexandria, Arlington, Ashburn, Burke, Centreville, Chantilly, Dunn Loring, Fairfax, Falls Church, Herndon, Reston, Springfield, Sterling & Vienna) – housing inventory is less than 2 months and we are in a Seller’s Market.

In Oakton, housing inventory is just under 3 months, which is technically also a Seller’s Market – but there are pockets – with some neighborhoods &  price ranges that are seeing a Balanced Market and others seeing a Seller’s Market.

In Great Falls & McLean, housing inventory is 6 months & 3 months respectively – so technically a Balanced Market. However, note that as you go up in price range, there are HUGE variances and some areas are actually still seeing a Buyer’s Market.

Here are the stats for each city in Northern VA:

CITY # Months Inventory Market
Alexandria 1.6 Seller’s
Arlington 1.8 Seller’s
Ashburn 2.8 Balanced
Burke 1.3 Seller’s
Centreville 1.1 Seller’s
Chantilly 1.3 Seller’s
Dunn Loring 2 Seller’s
Fairfax 1.1 Seller’s
Falls Church 1.5 Seller’s
Great Falls 6 Balanced
Herndon 1.8 Seller’s
McLean 3 Balanced
Oakton 2.5 Seller’s
Reston 1.3 Seller’s
Springfield 0.8 Seller’s
Sterling 1.2 Seller’s
Vienna 1.5 Seller’s

Call The Belt Team at (703) 242-3975 for a detailed analysis on YOUR neighborhood. After all, it’s only the area you live in or WANT to live in that matters!

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Buyer’s Market or Seller’s Market? Less Than Two Months Housing Supply in Vienna & Oakton

“Are we in a Buyer’s Market or a Seller’s Market in Vienna and Oakton?”

Is Northern Va Buyers Market Or Sellers Market

This is a question we still often get asked. Well, the Northern VA real estate market remains brisk and the Vienna Oakton area is no different. Here’s what’s happening:

  • In the past 30 days in Oakton, more homes have gone under contract than new listings have come on the market – 52 new listings and 55 contracts!
  • Vienna is right behind Oakton in pace – with 137 new listings and 125 contracts in the last 30 days.
  • Vienna inventory is at its highest this year – with 126 homes on the market. Oakton inventory is also at a 2013 high with 60 homes on the market. That being said, there is still less than 2 months housing inventory in both markets. And that means it’s still a SELLER’S MARKET.
  • Market priced homes in good condition and good locations are still being snapped up. Average days on market for homes that went under contract this past week was 19 days. 63% of those homes sold in a week or less! (Note that this is just the average across all price ranges. Lower price ranges often move faster.)

Here are the rest of this week’s statistics:

Vienna Real Estate (22180,22181, 22182):

Search Homes For Sale in Vienna

  • Number of Contracts: 33 (up from 25 last week)
  • Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 95 days (down from 101 last week)
  • Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 15 days (down from 38 last week)
  • Inventory: 126 homes on the market
  • Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 1.5 months (lowest in 2013!)
  • Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 1.0 (lowest in 2013!)

What Is My Vienna Home Worth?

Last week in Oakton Real Estate (22124):

Search Homes For Sale in Oakton

  • Number of Contracts: 15 (down from 19 last week)
  • Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 101 days (down from 105 last week)
  • Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 28 days (down from 34 last week)
  • Inventory: 60 homes on the market (up from 55 last week)
  • Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 1.5 months (lowest in 2013!)
  • Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 1.1  months (lowest in 2013!)

What Is My Oakton Home Worth?

Our mission is “Changing Lives For The Better – One Family At A Time!”

What Do Vienna & Oakton Homebuyers Have In Common With Paper Towels?

Vienna & Oakton homebuyers have a lot in common with paper towels, at least they do with Bounty brand paper towels.

Remember the old TV commercials? They called Bounty the “quicker picker upper”!

Well – the way Vienna & Oakton’s housing market is moving, it looks like homebuyers are definitely “quicker picker uppers”. In the past 30 days, homes went under contract at the fastest pace we’ve seen this year.

Statistics show we are almost to the point where for every home listed, a home goes under contract!

(Note: In a “Balanced Market, there is normally about 6 months of housing inventory. Current supply in Vienna and Oakton is 1.1 and 1.3 months respectively!)

  • In Vienna in the past 30 days, there were 114 new listings – and 105 homes went under contract.
  • In Oakton in the past 30 days, there were 51 new listings – and 45 homes went under contract.

Don’t get left behind in the rush of today’s market. When the river is moving along this fast, whether you are a Buyer or a Seller, you need a good captain to navigate the waters. Many homes are selling before they hit the market. It’s not unusual for us to get a call from a buyer asking about a certain listing, only for us to have to tell them that it’s been under contract for days. And Sellers can also benefit from having top notch negotiators leveraging their possibilities to the hilt.

No matter why you’re moving, The Belt Team can help you make the BEST move. If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, Contact The Belt Team at (703) 242-3975. We think you deserve the BEST Realtors in Northern Virginia!

Here are the rest of this weeks statistics:

Vienna Real Estate (22180,22181, 22182):

Search Homes For Sale in Vienna

  • Number of Contracts: 34
  • Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 104 days
  • Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 19 days
  • Inventory: 113 homes on the market
  • Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 1.4 months (lowest in 2013!)
  • Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 1.1 (lowest in 2013!)

What Is My Vienna Home Worth?

Last week in Oakton Real Estate (22124):

Search Homes For Sale in Oakton

  • Number of Contracts: 8
  • Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 89 days
  • Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 13 days
  • Inventory: 60 homes on the market
  • Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 1.8 months (same as the prior 2 weeks)
  • Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 1.3  months (same as the past week)

What Is My Oakton Home Worth?

Our mission is “Changing Lives For The Better – One Family At A Time!”

Oakton Sales Play Catch Up, Vienna Sales Still Swift

Seller's Market in Vienna & Oakton

As we have seen over the past years, Oakton’s real estate market often lags just slightly behind the real estate market in Vienna. The past few weeks we have reported that Vienna home sales have surged. But Oakton’s market, with only 1-3 sales per week over the past four weeks, has been slow. However, this week, Oakton sales popped and 11 homes went under contract! (Note however, that 10 of the 11 sales this week were for homes listed at $675,000 or less. So price range is still a big factor in the market. Time will tell if sales activity trickles up.)

Inventory levels in both Oakton & Vienna remain low. Based on the past 30 days sales, Oakton only has 2.4 months of inventory. That’s low, but the real story is in Vienna. Vienna only has 1.6 months of inventory. We have been tracking weekly inventory levels since 2009. THIS IS A RECORD LOW SINCE THAT TIME! Can you say “Seller’s Market”?!

Savvy Sellers are taking advantage of this situation and instead of waiting until the “Spring Housing Market”, are selling now when competition is little to none. This past weekend, Terry Belt, CEO of The Belt Team,  put two homes on the market – one in Oakton listed just under $600,000 and the other in Vienna listed just under $1,000,000. Both homes had a huge number of showings and were under contract in just 4 days. This story is being repeated all over Vienna. Last week 20 homes went under contract and 9 of those homes sold in a week or less.

The moral of the story for Buyers is that you MUST be prepared – prepared to possibly offer over list price, prepared to increase your deposit, prepared to possibly waive contingencies. But before you do that, make sure you discuss ALL the implications with your Realtor!

Because The Belt Team is known for selling more homes in Vienna-Oakton than any other team or Realtor, we often have Buyers ask us to represent them when they are looking for their dream homes here. So if you are thinking of selling, please contact us (703-242-3975). Chances are we may have Buyers already looking in your neighborhood or price range. And if we don’t, we can help you strategize to maximize the return on your home. (Our stats show that Belt Team listings sell faster and for more money than the average agent’s.)

Here is this week’s Market Snapshot for Vienna & Oakton:

Northern VA Real Estate Market Snapshot

Last week in Vienna Real Estate (22180,22181, 22182):

Search Homes For Sale in Vienna

  • Number of Contracts: 20 (the highest number since the week of Oct 10, 2012)
  • Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 145 days
  • Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 43 days
  • Inventory: 101 homes on the market (a record low in the past 3 years)
  • Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 1.95 months
  • Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 1.6 months

What Is My Vienna Home Worth?

Last week in Oakton Real Estate (22124):

Search Homes For Sale in Oakton

  • Number of Contracts: 11 (up from 1 last week, and 3 each of the past 3 weeks)
  • Average Days on Market for Active Listings: 122 days
  • Average Days on Market for Listings That Went Under Contract: 50 days
  • Inventory: 50 homes on the market (down from 53 last week)
  • Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 90 day contract rate): 2.4 months
  • Number of Months Supply of Homes (Based on past 30 day contract rate): 2.4 months

What Is My Oakton Home Worth?