New Study Reveals One Surprising Reason for the Inventory Shortage

New Study Reveals One Surprising Reason for the Inventory Shortage | MyKCM

There has been a great amount written on millennials and their impact on the housing market. However, the headlines often contradict each other. Some claim this generation is becoming the largest share of first-time home buyers, while others claim millennials don’t want to own a home, blaming them for the dip in homeownership rate.

While it is true that millennials have achieved milestones like getting married, having kids, and buying homes later in life than their parents and grandparents did, they are not solely to blame for today’s housing market trends.

Freddie Mac’s Insight Report explored the impact of the Silent and Baby Boomer Generations on the housing market.

If millennials are unable to find a home to buy at a young age like their predecessors, then who is living in those homes?

The answer: Seniors born after 1931 are staying in their homes longer than previous generations, instead choosing to “age in place.”

Freddie Mac found that,

“this trend accounts for about 1.6 million houses held back from the market through 2018, representing about one year’s typical supply of new construction, or more than half of the current shortfall of 2.5 million housing units estimated in December’s Insight.

Older Americans prefer to age in place because they are satisfied with their communities, their homes, and their quality of life.”

According to the National Association of Realtors, inventory of homes for sale is currently at a 3.5-month supply, which means that nationally we are in a seller’s market. A ‘normal’ housing market requires 6-7 months inventory, a level we have not achieved since August 2012.

“The most important fundamental in today’s housing market is the lack of houses for sale. This shortage has been identified as an important barrier to young adults buying their first homes.”

Bottom Line

If you are one of the many seniors who desires to retire in the same area you’ve always lived, you’re not alone. Will your current house fit your needs throughout retirement? If you have any questions about demand for your house, let’s get together to discuss the opportunities available today!

Need help navigating the market? Call/text us at 703-242-3975!

Home Sale Statistics in Our Area – March 2019

Welcome to our monthly post of home sale statistics for our region and some hyper local markets!  Below you will find the numbers for March.

Please call or text The Belt Team at (703) 242-3975 or email info@thebeltteam.com to discuss in more detail what is happening in your market or if you are interested in buying and/or selling…we’d love to hear from you!

Mid-Atlantic Region March 2019 home sales:

11,647 homes went under contract in the region. This is up significantly (30.59%) from the same time period in 2018!

26% of the homes that went to settlement in March 2019, sold in 10 days or less from when they hit the market. 

• Average sold price was $404,518 (up 2.6% from the same time period in 2018 when it was $394,114)

20,338 homes came on the market. That’s down 1.4% from March 2018.

• Homes that sold (closed) averaged 70 days on market, 11 days faster than in March of 2018.

• There is currently a 2.5 month supply of homes (remember, in a balanced market – the demand from buyers equals the supply from sellers – there is a 5-6 months supply) in the Mid Atlantic Region – and 28,094 homes for sale (townhouse, condo and single family).

OVERALL: The Mid-Atlantic Region remains in a Seller’s Market.  The inventory continues to be low favoring sellers.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the numbers of our local market areas, and see if there continues to be segments that are experiencing a somewhat different market.  The upper-end price points in some areas have been experiencing more of a Balanced (even Buyers in some cases) market where prices are not appreciating and properties are sitting on the market longer.  Whereas the lower price points have less inventory and homes are selling much faster.  

To see what the conditions are like in your community, click on the link to your desired city below! 

Remember…if you are thinking of buying and/or selling, contact us NOW (703-242-3975) to make sure you are working with an agent that will provide you with the data you need to make good decisions. The reality is that Buyers & Sellers who are successful in today’s market look at the data and act accordingly. All of this data about the variances in different price ranges is a perfect example of why.  If you’re looking to buy, and you “make an offer” below list price – you might be successful in the upper ranges where there is a more abundant supply of homes. Taking that same action in the lower price range will likely mean you don’t get the house of your dreams. Someone else will.

3 Graphs that Show What You Need to Know About Today’s Real Estate Market

3 Graphs that Show What You Need to Know About Today's Real Estate Market | MyKCM

The Housing Market has been a hot-topic in the news lately. Depending on which media outlet you watch, it can start to be a bit confusing to understand what’s really going on with interest rates and home prices!

The best way to show what’s really going on in today’s real estate market is to go straight to the data! We put together the following three graphs along with a quote from Chief Economists that have their finger on the pulse of what each graph illustrates.

Interest Rates:

“The real estate market is thawing in response to the sustained decline in mortgage rates and rebound in consumer confidence – two of the most important drivers of home sales. Rising sales demand coupled with more inventory than previous spring seasons suggests that the housing market is in the early stages of regaining momentum.” – Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac

Income:

“A powerful combination of lower mortgage rates, more inventory, rising income and higher consumer confidence is driving the sales rebound.” – Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR

Home Prices:

“Price growth has been too strong for several years, fueled in part by abnormally low interest rates. A mild deceleration in home sales and Home Price Index growth is actually healthy, because it will calm excessive price growth — which has pushed many markets, particularly in the West, into overvalued territory.” – Ralph DeFranco, Global Chief Economist at Arch Capital Services Inc.

Bottom Line

These three graphs indicate good news for the spring housing market! Interest rates are low, income is rising, and home prices have experienced mild deceleration over the last 9 months. If you are considering buying a home or selling your house, let’s get together to chat about our market!

Thinking of selling or buying? Give us a call at 703-242-3975!

Every time a home sells in your neighborhood the equity in your home rises. Text BELTVALUE to 59559 for your current home valuation!

Home Sale Statistics in Our Area – February 2019

Welcome to our monthly post of home sale statistics for our region and some hyper-local markets! Below you will find the numbers for February.

Please call The Belt Team at (703) 242-3975 or email info@thebeltteam.com to discuss in more detail what is happening in your market or if you are interested in buying and/or selling…we’d love to hear from you!

11,840 homes went under contract in the region. This is down 1.94% from the same time period in 2018.

19% of the homes that went to settlement in February 2019, sold in 10 days or less from when they hit the market. 

14,043 homes came on the market. That’s down 3.07% from February 2018.

Homes that sold (closed) averaged 78 days on market, 9 days slower than in February of 2018.

There is currently a 2.4 month supply of homes (remember, in a balanced market – the demand from buyers equals the supply from sellers – there is a 5-6 months supply) in the Mid Atlantic Region – and 26,637 homes for sale (townhouse, condo, and single family).

OVERALL: The Mid-Atlantic Region remains in a Seller’s Market.  The inventory continues to be low favoring sellers.

However, as you dig deeper into the numbers of our local market areas, you will find segments that are experiencing somewhat different market conditions.  The upper-end price points in some areas are experiencing more of a Balanced (even Buyers in some cases) market where prices are not appreciating and properties are sitting on the market longer.  Whereas the lower price points are less inventory and homes are selling much faster. 

To see what the conditions are like in your community, click on the link to your desired city below! 

And…if you are thinking of buying and/or selling, contact us NOW (703-242-3975) to make sure you are working with an agent that will provide you with the data you need to make good decisions. The reality is that Buyers & Sellers who are successful in today’s market look at the data and act accordingly. All of this data about the variances in different price ranges is a perfect example of why.  If you’re looking to buy, and you “make an offer” below list price – you might be successful in the upper ranges where there is a more abundant supply of homes. Taking that same action in the lower price range will likely mean you don’t get the house of your dreams. Someone else will.

BUYERS: Did you know that Belt Team Buyers are eligible for our FREE Priority Notification List for new listings not yet in the MLS?! Call 703-242-3975 for details.

SELLERS: Call The Belt Team at 703-242-3975 for our FREE Report “42 Questions To Ask Your Realtor BEFORE You Sell”. And find out how our listings sell FASTER and for MORE MONEY than the average agent’s listings. Or Text BELT to 59559 for a FREE home valuation!

3 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Crash

3 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Crash | MyKCM

With home prices softening, some are concerned that we may be headed toward the next housing crash. However, it is important to remember that today’s market is quite different than the bubble market of twelve years ago.

The Belt Team, CEO, Terry Belt says, A difference now compared to the last cycle is that the economy is bustling at levels not seen since the mid/late 1980s and jobs are being created and consumer confidence and real wages are increasing.  The last cycle all of these factors were all trending negative and also amidst a higher mortgage/interest rate environment.

Here are three key metrics that will explain why:

  1. Home Prices
  2. Mortgage Standards
  3. Foreclosure Rates

HOME PRICES

A decade ago, home prices depreciated dramatically, losing about 29% of their value over a four-year period (2008-2011). Today, prices are not depreciating. The level of appreciation is just decelerating.

Home values are no longer appreciating annually at a rate of 6-7%. However, they have still increased by more than 4% over the last year. Of the 100 experts reached for the latest Home Price Expectation Survey94 said home values would continue to appreciate through 2019. It will just occur at a lower rate.

MORTGAGE STANDARDS

Many are concerned that lending institutions are again easing standards to a level that helped create the last housing bubble. However, there is proof that today’s standards are nowhere near as lenient as they were leading up to the crash.

The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a quarterly index which,

“…measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”

Last month, their January Housing Credit Availability Index revealed:

“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”

FORECLOSURE INVENTORY

Within the last decade, distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) made up 35% of all home sales. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association revealed just last week that:

“The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 0.95 percent…This was the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the first quarter of 1996.”

Bottom Line

After using these three key housing metrics to compare today’s market to that of the last decade, we can see that the two markets are nothing alike.

It is always a good time to buy or sell, and we are here to help! Let’s chat. Give us a call at 703-242-3975 or send us an email at info@thebeltteam.com .

Check out the latest listings

Home Sale Statistics in Our Area – January 2019

On The Belt Team, we take pride in being your local real estate “experts”!  Part of that involves staying on top of market stats & trends.  In this post, and on a monthly basis, we will share with you some of the home sale statistics we watch in our region and in our own backyard.  

10,689 homes went under contract in the region. This is down 1.54% from the same time period in 2018. 

16% of the homes that went to settlement in January 2019, sold in 10 days or less from when they hit the market.

Average sold price was $396,337 (up 6.69% from the same time period in 2018 when it was $371,497)

12,625 homes came on the market. That’s up 3.14% from January 2018.

Homes that sold (closed) averaged 78 days on market, 12 days slower than in January of 2018.

There is currently a 2.3 month supply of homes (remember, in a balanced market – the demand from buyers equals the supply from sellers – there is a 5-6 months supply) in the Mid Atlantic Region – and 26,560 homes for sale (townhouse, condo and single family).

OVERALL: The Mid-Atlantic Region is still in a Seller’s Market.  The inventory remains low…advantage Sellers!

However, as you dig deeper into the numbers of our local market areas, you will find segments that are experiencing somewhat different market conditions.  The upper-end price points in some areas are experiencing more of a Balanced (even Buyers in some cases) market where prices are not appreciating and properties are sitting on the market longer.  Whereas the lower price points are seeing appreciation, there is less inventory and homes are selling much faster.  

To see what the conditions are like in your community, click on the link to your desired city below! 

And…if you are thinking of buying and/or selling, contact us NOW (703-242-3975) to make sure you are working with an agent that will provide you with the data you need to make good decisions. The reality is that Buyers & Sellers who are successful in today’s market look at the data and act accordingly. All of this data about the variances in different price ranges is a perfect example of why.  If you’re looking to buy, and you “make an offer” below list price – you might be successful in the upper ranges where there is a more abundant supply of homes. Taking that same action in the lower price range will likely mean you don’t get the house of your dreams. Someone else will.

BUYERS: Did you know that Belt Team Buyers are eligible for our FREE Priority Notification List for new listings not yet in the MLS?! Call 703-242-3975 for details.

SELLERS: Call The Belt Team at 703-242-3975 for our FREE Report “42 Questions To Ask Your Realtor BEFORE You Sell”. And find out how our listings sell FASTER and for MORE MONEY than the average agent’s listings.

The Impact of Homeownership on Civic Involvement

Here’s a fascinating new update from Keeping Current Matters:
The Impact of Homeownership on Civic Involvement | MyKCM

The National Association of Realtors recently released a study titled ‘Social Benefits of Homeownership and Stable Housing.’ The study confirmed a long-standing belief of most Americans:

“Owning a home embodies the promise of individual autonomy and is the aspiration of most American households. Homeownership allows households to accumulate wealth and social status, and is the basis for a number of positive social, economic, family and civic outcomes.”

Today, we want to cover the section of the report that quoted several studies concentrating on the impact homeownership has on the civic participation of family members. Here are some of the major findings on this issue revealed in the report:

  • Homeowners have a much greater financial stake in their neighborhoods than renters. With the median national home price in 2015 at $223,900, even a 5% decline in home values will translate into a loss of more than $11,195 for a typical homeowner.
  • Because owners tend to remain in their homes longer, they add a degree of stability to their neighborhood.
  • Homeowners also reap the financial gains of any appreciation in the value of their home, so they also tend to spend more time and money maintaining their residence, which also contributes to the overall quality of the surrounding community.
  • Homeowners were found to be more politically active than renters with 77% of homeowners saying they had at some point voted in local elections compared with 52% of renters.
  • There seems to be a greater awareness of the political process among homeowners. About 38% of homeowners knew the name of their local school board representative, compared with only 20% of renters.
  • There is a higher incidence of membership in voluntary organizations and church attendance among homeowners.
  • Homeownership does create social capital and provide residents with a platform from which to connect and interact with neighbors.
  • Owning a home means owning part of a neighborhood, and a homeowner’s feelings of commitment to the home can arouse feelings of commitment to the neighborhood, which, in turn, can produce interactions with neighbors.

Bottom Line

People often talk about the financial benefits of homeownership. As we can see, there are also social benefits of owning your own home.

*Next Thursday, we will report the study’s findings on the impact homeownership has on a family’s health.

WHat Is My Home Worth

January 2015 National Real Estate Update

Everything you want to know about the national real estate market in a minute or less!

(When you’re ready for a HYPERLOCAL analysis – contact Terry Belt & The Belt Team at (703) 242-3975!)

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