3 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Crash

With home prices softening, some are concerned that we may be headed toward the next housing crash. However, it is important to remember that today’s market is quite different than the bubble market of twelve years ago.

The Belt Team, CEO, Terry Belt says, A difference now compared to the last cycle is that the economy is bustling at levels not seen since the mid/late 1980s and jobs are being created and consumer confidence and real wages are increasing.  The last cycle all of these factors were all trending negative and also amidst a higher mortgage/interest rate environment.

Here are three key metrics that will explain why:

1. Home Prices
2. Mortgage Standards
3. Foreclosure Rates

HOME PRICES

A decade ago, home prices depreciated dramatically, losing about 29% of their value over a four-year period (2008-2011). Today, prices are not depreciating. The level of appreciation is just decelerating.

Home values are no longer appreciating annually at a rate of 6-7%. However, they have still increased by more than 4% over the last year. Of the 100 experts reached for the latest Home Price Expectation Survey, 94 said home values would continue to appreciate through 2019. It will just occur at a lower rate.

MORTGAGE STANDARDS

Many are concerned that lending institutions are again easing standards to a level that helped create the last housing bubble. However, there is proof that today’s standards are nowhere near as lenient as they were leading up to the crash.

The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a quarterly index which,

“…measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”

Last month, their January Housing Credit Availability Index revealed:

“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”

FORECLOSURE INVENTORY

Within the last decade, distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) made up 35% of all home sales. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association revealed just last week that:

“The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 0.95 percent…This was the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the first quarter of 1996.”

Bottom Line

After using these three key housing metrics to compare today’s market to that of the last decade, we can see that the two markets are nothing alike.

It is always a good time to buy or sell, and we are here to help! Let’s chat. Give us a call at 703-242-3975 or send us an email at info@thebeltteam.com .

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What Home Buyers Need To Know About Shadow Inventory in Northern Virginia

Have you ever heard the term “shadow inventory”?

Shadow inventory is normally a term that refers to a supply of homes that has not yet been put on the market, but is “lurking” in the background – usually real estate properties that are in foreclosure (REO or bank owned properties) or close to foreclosure.

But there really is another type of “shadow inventory” here in Northern Virginia; and if you’re a Buyer, you need to pay attention to this!

As you know, inventory around Northern Virginia is scarce. Homes are selling quickly and there is not a glut of homes on the market the way there was five years ago. Homes that are priced well, in a good location and in good condition are getting snapped up – and sometimes getting multiple, competing contracts and selling over list price. Places like Vienna, VA for example, only have 1.6 months of housing inventory. This is unheard of in recent years.

So what is a Buyer to do?

Find the shadow inventory! Not the REO homes, but the “other” shadow inventory.

Successful, experienced Realtors often have their own “shadow inventory”. When you’ve been in the real estate business for an extended period of time and are tops in your field, you build up a very loyal clientele & following. And this means that past clients (and new ones) often contact you well in advance of going on the market. They list their home with you and then have you consult with them on how they can maximize the return on their home. Only then do they go about preparing the home – doing repairs, improvements, painting, staging, etc. And the home does not go on the market until everything is ready.

Therefore, there is a period of time between when the home is listed and when it actually hits the market. THIS creates a small amount of “shadow inventory” and THIS is why Buyers should work with TOP Realtors. It maximizes their chances of finding their dream home.

As an example, The Belt Team has signed listings for properties in the following areas that are not on the market yet:

• Parker Avenue in Falls Church
• Virginia Center Blvd in Vienna
• Adams Hill Road in Vienna
• Orleans Circle in Vienna
• Willow Branch Ct in Vienna

In addition to this, top agents also have vast networks of contacts and can reach out to them on your behalf. Sometimes, people are not actively ready to sell their home, but when we reach out to them on behalf of a buyer who has targeted their neighborhood and who is already approved for a loan, it’s enough to make them consider a sale. And sometimes they actually sell – without putting their home on the market. We have sold a number of homes that way. And it’s a win-win for both buyer and seller.

If you would like to work with an agent who is creative, proactive and who thinks outside the box, contact The Belt Team at (703) 242-3975. That’s what it takes to make your real estate dreams come true in today’s market.

Our mission is “Changing Lives For The Better, One Family At A Time.” Is it time to change yours?

Washington DC Area – #2 in Happiness Poll

A recent Gallup Healthways poll found that the Washington D.C. Metropolitan area ranked as #2 among Top Major Metro Areas in the entire country when it comes to happiness! For those of us who live in Northern Virginia, this does not come as a surprise. In fact, we have a whole blog devoted to what we love about Life in Vienna, Virginia.

But there’s also a correlation between our ranking and the number of sales of distressed properties (short sales and foreclosures). And it’s not necessarily what you’d think.

Check out This Month in Real Estate for details: 

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